Tuesday, May 22, 2012

A Pause For A Cause

***  FUNDRAISER 6-11-12 UPDATE BELOW ***

Tuscaloosa Trenders,
This blog commenced in March 2011 for the purpose of bringing attention to oil and gas activity across Central LA with a specific focus on the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale (TMS) and the Austin Chalk plays.  Fourteen months, 255 posts, and 328,480 page views later, the TMS appears to be gaining significant momentum.  I have a feeling that the hard work has just begun.

The blog is a "pro bono" effort and I consider it my personal contribution to the cause.  While some have stated that I gain from it, my project partners believe that I've attracted competition to our efforts.  My belief is that for a shale play to succeed, you need several large, well capitalized, experienced players.  We might have just hit that critical mass.

My intention or goal has never been to make this a commercial effort.  In exchange for the information and value provided, I have asked for those who utilize the information, to make a donation to our favorite charity, Emmaus House.  The donations have been extremely underwhelming to say the least. 

Emmaus House was founded in the late 60's by the late Father David Kirk.  The non-profit organization has served the needy of Harlem for over 45 years.  Emmaus serves 2200 meals per month and also distributes clothing.  The needs have increased 100% over the past six months.  Father David was my uncle and I currently serve on the board of directors.  My main focus is fundraising. Emmaus is staffed 100% by volunteers.  Your donation will serve the needy directly.  Your donation is in good hands.

The blog is going to go on "hiatus" while we are inspired by this fundraiser.  This might resemble one of those Ron Paul "money bombs" where they raise millions of dollars in a day.

The blog appears to have served many well:
Landowners
I receive numerous emails from many of you per week.  Many state that the blog is the first read in the morning while sipping coffee.  I estimate that over 2 million acres have been leased.  If you assume that average lease was for $190/acre that totals $380 million of income across the play.
Landowners, now's your time to impress us with your generosity.

Oil Companies
As you might expect, this group is very active on our websites.  The predicted players, Encana, Devon, Anadarko, Indigo, EOG, Goodrich, and Sanchez are very active.  Other frequent visitors include Conoco, Chevron, Chesapeake, Stone, and Petroquest.  Historically, oil companies have paid well for scout services.  Why not contribute a tax deductible donation instead?  Caruthers Producing gets it. They kindly donated $2000.  Very impressive for a small producer.

Service Companies
Many service company reps have stated that the Scout Report is their main tool for pursuing leads for business in the play.  This appears to be an invaluable service.  The "big boys" are very active on our websites....Schlumberger and Haliburton.  Numerous small service vendors have called me several times.  Williams (midstream) has followed the play on our websites for a long time.

Finance
The money folks are very active on the site.  They appear to be the most active group of late.  This seems to endorse the fact that the play is becoming noticable in the public market.  Pritchard, EnCap, Jefferies, and Stifel visit very often.

Landmen
The landmen are probably the most active group.  Our Play Boundary Map has received the most attention with 10,230 views:
http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/2011/03/tuscaloosa-marine-shale-play-boundary.html
Those running the land crews have done well the past 18 months.  This is your chance to contribute to the cause.

Media
I've visited with many from the media over the past fifteen months and typically respond quickly to meet your publishing deadlines.  Now's your chance to contribute back.

I look forward to you inspiring me to post very soon about the recent completions!!


Donate Online (An anonymous option is available):
(In the Dedication or Gift box, enter “Kirk’s Challenge”)

Donate By Mail:
Emmaus House, Inc.
PO Box 1177
New York, NY 10035

Emmaus House, Inc. is a 501(c)(3) public charity making your gift tax deductible.

**********************************
Fundraiser Update:
-Total pageviews: 346,517
-Page views per day: 2201
-Donations since 5/22/12: 45
Where are the landowners? The service companies? The landmen that printed out the play map 10,000 times?  Those equity firms that keep writing reports with all of those great facts?

The Tuscaloosa Trend "Wall of Fame"
I've added all donors since the campaign began last December.  Thank you to everyone for your generosity.  You obviously "get it".
Note our foundational member, "G.M.", who donated $10,000 after a nice minerals sale.


Goodrich Gets TMS Press

Goodrich Petroleum received a nice endorsement regarding the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale yesterday.

"Goodrich Petroleum (NYSE: GDP) is seeing sharp upside Monday, which is being attributed to takeover speculation sparked by analysts.  Canaccord Genuity analyst John Gerdes said the 'stock could triple' with success at its Tuscaloosa Marine Shale play.  'Goodrich closed Friday with a market capitalization of ~$500 million. With follow-on drilling success, we believe Goodrich should be able to sell a 25% interest in its ~103,000 net acre Tuscaloosa leasehold for $5,000 per acre, or ~$125 million,' Gerdes said. 'Additionally, Goodrich would likely raise $100-150 million in equity to fund the ~$175 million increase in capital spending. Under this scenario, our target price would likely increase ~50% to ~$40/share.'  The Tuscaloosa play may be too large for Goodrich to develop alone and 'a larger entity could buy Goodrich in its entirety or the company could enter into a joint venture and issue equity to fund Tuscaloosa development,' the analyst also said."
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Goodrich+Petroleum+(GDP)+Rips+Higher+as+Analyst+Sees+a+Triple,+and+Possible+Takeover/7457565.html

 

Scout Report - May 22, 2012

Scout Report:
https://sites.google.com/site/tuscaloosatrend/scout-reports

Play Overview:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/documents/tuscaloosatrend/Amelia%20Resources%20LLC%20TUSCALOOSA%20MARINE%20SHALE%20Play%20Overview%20MAR%202012.pdf

Unitization:
https://sites.google.com/site/tuscaloosatrend/home/other-documents

Google Maps:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=204256365055521729132.0004b5bbdae554174421a&msa=0&ie=UTF8&t=m&z=11&vpsrc=1

News:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/news.htm

Presentations:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/presentations.htm

Show your appreciation for this blog by making a tax deductible donation to our favorite charity:

Friday, May 18, 2012

Anderson 17H Update

Multiple sources indicate that the Encana Anderson 17H-1 has flowed at a consistent rate of 1000 barrels of oil per day for the past three days.  Nothing has been officially announced.  Encana continues to raise the bar for the play. Congrats to the Encana team.

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Recent Presentations

I've added two recent presentations on our website from the New Orleans Geological Society (NOGS) Luncheon and the Hart's DUO Conference.
http://www.ameliaresources.com/presentations.htm

Thursday, May 10, 2012

As The Tuscaloosa Turns - May 10, 2012

I receive many emails per week asking confirmation of the many rumors that are circulating.  For the purpose of addressing those in a more efficient manner, I'll be posting this new segment, "As The Tuscaloosa Turns", when the "rumor mill" appears to be overly excited.  Keep in mind that these are unconfirmed rumors from questionable sources.  Believe at your own risk.  With that said, TT (aka "Tuscaloosa Trend"), will respond to some recent hot topics:


RUMOR: Is it true that Shell and Encana have signed a joint venture in the TMS?
TT: Multiple sources state that on April 24 in Denver, the two companies did meet and that a joint venture might have been signed or at least agreed upon.  It seems logical since the two companies were partners in the Haynesville and activity in that region has slowed dramatically.  Encana's stock showed some activity after 4/24 which might indicate that insiders were pleased with the result.  Further rumors state that Shell landmen landed in the Amite County courthouse last week.  Some believe that Encana and Goodrich will be working more closely together in the future. Stay tuned.

RUMOR: Is it true that Devon and Sinopec might also be involved more closely with Encana from a financial standpoint. 
TT: I have heard that but it doesn't make much sense to me since they already have a position in the play.  I hear that Devon and Encana are sharing technical data and allowing each other's staff on their rig locations.  So that was the "Four Horsemen" reference!

RUMOR: Is it true that Toyota might also be involved with Encana?
TT: Toyota Tsusho Corp has partnered with Encana recently in a coalbed methane project.  Some rumors have circulated that Toyota might also fund some of Encana's TMS project.  Ahh, the "Land Cruiser" now makes sense.

RUMOR: Is it true that McMoRan has partnered with Stone Energy in the TMS?
TT: Stone is definitely leasing in the play, but the McMoRan rumor is unconfirmed. Stone appears to be leasing in northern Wilkinson and Amite Counties.

RUMOR: Is it true that the Anderson well is flowing 2000 bopd?
TT: No, but I hope it will soon.

RUMOR: Is it true that EOG has a well planned in Vernon Parish?
TT: I have heard that from a few sources.

RUMOR: Is it true that Chevron offered Encana $16 billion for their Haynesville position and they declined?
TT: Now that's a wild one!  I don't follow the Haynesville closely, but that would be interesting.  Maybe Chevron is "bottom fishing" for cheap gas to add to their Marcellus position.

RUMOR: Is it true that Devon has lost interest in the southern portion of the play?
TT: I have heard that from a few sources.  If they do, I believe that that will be a big mistake.


Wednesday, May 9, 2012

Scout Report - May 9, 2012

Scout Report:
https://sites.google.com/site/tuscaloosatrend/scout-reports

Play Overview:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/documents/tuscaloosatrend/Amelia%20Resources%20LLC%20TUSCALOOSA%20MARINE%20SHALE%20Play%20Overview%20MAR%202012.pdf

Unitization:
https://sites.google.com/site/tuscaloosatrend/home/other-documents

Google Maps:
http://maps.google.com/maps/ms?msid=204256365055521729132.0004b5bbdae554174421a&msa=0&ie=UTF8&t=m&z=11&vpsrc=1

News:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/news.htm

Presentations:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/presentations.htm

Show your appreciation for this blog by making a tax deductible donation to our favorite charity:

TMS Scorecard - May 9, 2012

Here's a current "TMS Scorecard" for wells that I have information on.  As always, please email me any corrections.

TMS Scorecard

EOG Announces TMS Play

In EOG's earnings call this morning, they made a very brief mention that they are in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale play and that they have formed a joint venture with MCX Exploration.  They stated that they don't provide much information on new venture plays until they are proven.  In the Q&A session, no questions were asked regarding the TMS.

EOG's results in the Eagle Ford are very impressive. As stated prior, they will bring a significant amount of knowledge and experience to the play. I anxiously await their first two wells in Avoyelles Parish.

I'll post the earnings call transcript once it appears online.

Crude By Rail

EOG's quarterly presentation includes a nice graphic explaining the US oil price scenario really well.  The TMS is blessed with some serendipity.  Warren Buffet bought the railroads for a reason.Source:
http://www.eogresources.com/investors/slides/InvPres_0512.pdf

Source: EOG Quarterly Results Presentation

Tuesday, May 8, 2012

Devon Richland Farms 74H-1 Result

Devon's timid frac design has resulted in another underwhelming TMS result.  I hear that they only averaged 100,000-150,000# of proppant per stage.  It resembles a Les Miles second half play call.

SONRIS reports this:
COMPLETED 4/29/12 AS A OIL WELL IN THE TUSCALOOSA MARINE SHALE RES;PM F 259 BOPD; 151 MCFD; 2700CP; 09/64 CK; 470 BWPD; 1.8%BS&W; 583 GOR; 40.9 GRVTY PERFS 13718-18146' (ST: 10)

Lets hope that their "sandbagging" us again like on the Soterra 6H-1.  All I can say is "Put in Jarrett Lee!".

EOG Earnings Call

EOG's earnings call might be worth listening to tomorrow...wink wink

Q1 2012 - Earnings Conference Call - 9:00 AM EDT
http://www.eogresources.com/investors/conference_calls.html

Goodrich's Earnings Call

Here's the TMS highlights from Goodrich's earnings call yesterday:
- Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Acreage Grows to 102,600 Net Acres with Initial Well in Completion Phase and Flowback to Commence within One to Two Weeks
- Capital Expenditure Budget Reaffirmed at $250 - 275 Million with $25 Million Earmarked for Potential Incremental Drilling in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Based on Ongoing Positive Results


The Company reaffirms its full year 2012 capital expenditure budget of $250 – 275 million, with the incremental $25 million earmarked for potential drilling activity in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale based on ongoing positive results. Within the $250 million budget, the Company is further reducing gas-directed capital expenditures by approximately $10 million and increasing its leasehold acquisition budget by a similar amount, allocated primarily to the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. 

Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Trend
The Company has increased its acreage position in the play by approximately 17,800 net acres, for $4.3 million, bringing the total acreage position to approximately 102,600 net acres. The Company has participated for an approximate 5% non-operated working interest in the Anderson 17H-1 well in Amite County, Mississippi. The well, which was drilled with an approximate 7,300 foot lateral and completed with 30 frac stages, is in the completion phase with flowback expected to begin within one to two weeks. For the remainder of 2012, the Company currently expects to participate in two to four additional non-operated wells and two to five operated wells, with a capital expenditure allocation of $20 – 45 million. The Company's first operated well, the Denkmann 33 H-1, is expected to commence by the end of May.

Source: http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/english-releases/goodrich-petroleum-announces-first-quarter-2012-financial-and-operating-results-150494085.html

Thursday, May 3, 2012

Happy 300,000th

Today the blog hit 300,000 pages views.  I believe that the TMS is finally getting some deserved respect and attention.  May the pioneers be rewarded for their early and bold moves!

Tuscaloosa Trend Blog - Activity Statistics

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

NOGS Luncheon

I will be giving a presentation at the New Orleans Geological Society luncheon next Monday, May 7.  For those interested in attending, contact NOGS at:
Telephone: 504-561-8980
Office Manager: Annette Hudson
annette@nogs.org

Four Horses And A Land Cruiser?

Rumors are circulating today that Encana has secured partners for the TMS.  Word has it that the rigs will be back "turning to the right" real soon.  Maybe a third rig will appear?

TMS Tour

I just returned from a multi-day tour of the TMS.  Excitement continues to build on the ground.  The Anderson 17H and 18H locations were extremely busy with the 18H frac job in progress.  The 17H completed 30 stages and the 18H is targeting the same.  The Devon Richland Farms completed 20 stages.  It sounds like Devon is still taking a conservative approach on the frac job.  The proppant volumes are much less than Encanas.  These three results should be very revealing.  The crazy rumors have already begun.

I conclude from driving across Wilkinson County that the roads are going to need some assistance to withstand the constant truck traffic.  The journey to the Horseshoe Hill is a bumpy one, but Encana's road to the wellsite is superb.  I would assume that the local residents are appreciative of the road improvement.  The location is large and pristine.  A nice flare still burns.

I was told that the trip to Devon's Murphy 63H could be a challenging one, so we sent the "Tuscaloosa Unmanned Drone" up instead to take the picture below.
Devon Murphy 63H-1
Encana Horseshoe 10H location


Shale Presentation: Senator Mary Landrieu's Team

I had the opportunity to make a presentation to Senator Mary Landrieu's team last week.  The goal was to provide information on Louisiana's oil and gas activity relating to unconventional plays, horizontal drilling, and hydraulic fracturing with a focus on the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale. 

The presentation is on our website:
http://www.ameliaresources.com/documents/presentations/Tuscaloosa%20Marine%20Shale%20SENATOR%20LANDRIEU%20presentation%20APR%202012.pdf