The Devon Murphy 63H-1 is preparing to be fracked. I understand that the delay has been due to sourcing water. The base of the TMS in the well is approximately -13800' TVD-SS. It represents the deepest horizontal TMS test to date. I believe it to be in an excellent geological location. According to SONRIS, there will be 16 stages across perforations of 14353'-19155' representing 300' spacing. Devon's most recent frac, the Weyerhaeuser 14H-1 averaged 317,500# of proppant per stage. This represented a significant increase from their Richland Farms 74H-1 well where the average was 91,600#.
With our small database of recent TMS completions, we can start making bold predictions about potential outcomes. The three charts below present results from the existing TMS completions. A quick examination would indicate that the well should have an initial potential in the range of 450-500 boepd. Wells with similar number of stages with longer laterals have had results in the 695-777 boepd range. I anticipate that this completion will be better than predicted because of its strong geological attributes, higher pressure, and a higher GOR. I believe that this completion will have the highest GOR to date (>900). I anticipate a boepd > 600. For the reasons stated above, it could be even higher. This should be Devon's best completion to date.
Keep in mind the words of the late, great Albert Einstein:
“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.”
I understand that they are already building two locations adjacent to it. Stay tuned.