Friday, July 27, 2012

Devon Murphy 63H-1 Update

The Devon Murphy 63H-1 is preparing to be fracked.  I understand that the delay has been due to sourcing water.  The base of the TMS in the well is approximately -13800' TVD-SS.  It represents the deepest horizontal TMS test to date.  I believe it to be in an excellent geological location.  According to SONRIS, there will be 16 stages across perforations of 14353'-19155' representing 300' spacing.  Devon's most recent frac, the Weyerhaeuser 14H-1 averaged 317,500# of proppant per stage.  This represented a significant increase from their Richland Farms 74H-1 well where the average was 91,600#. 

With our small database of recent TMS completions, we can start making bold predictions about potential outcomes.  The three charts below present results from the existing TMS completions.  A quick examination would indicate that the well should have an initial potential in the range of 450-500 boepd.  Wells with similar number of stages with longer laterals have had results in the 695-777 boepd range.  I anticipate that this completion will be better than predicted because of its strong geological attributes, higher pressure, and a higher GOR.  I believe that this completion will have the highest GOR to date (>900). I anticipate a boepd > 600.  For the reasons stated above, it could be even higher.  This should be Devon's best completion to date. 

Keep in mind the words of the late, great Albert Einstein:
“When the number of factors coming into play in a phenomenological complex is too large scientific method in most cases fails. One need only think of the weather, in which case the prediction even for a few days ahead is impossible.” 

I understand that they are already building two locations adjacent to it.  Stay tuned.


2 comments:

  1. It wouldn't surprise me if their daily average after 30 days of production is a good bit higher than the IP of 460 boepd. The choke could and will probably be opened some and less water should return over time. Your guess of 600 boepd could end up being correct.IMO

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