Friday, September 14, 2012

TMS - Decline Rates

Updated production for July has been posted on the Mississippi Oil & Gas Board site.

The chart below plots the average daily production rate (boepd) from monthly production totals.  The ranges are diverse due to the range in lateral lengths and subsequent frac jobs.

Source: SONRIS, MSOGB
The chart below presents the oil production as a percent decline on a monthly basis.  The Encana Board of Education #1H has produced the longest. This well was originally drilled by Encore and was re-entered and completed by Encana.  I don't consider it part of this recent "era" of wells, but it does provide twelve months of production.  It exhibits nice stabilization in production rate from months four to twelve.  The other wells also exhibit a sharp decrease in decline rate in month four.  I find this very encouraging.  The faster the curve "flattens", the larger the estimated ultimate recovery (EUR).

Source: SONRIS, MSOGB
The chart below presents the percent decline in the average daily oil rate from the peak month of production.  While the Encana BOE #1H has a 87% decline off of the peak rate, I consider this well the worst case scenario due to the history of the wellbore.  Only 1,000,000# of proppant was pumped during the frac job.  Over the next few months, the Weyerhaeuser 73H-1 and Horseshoe Hill 10H-1 will show us a lot.  The Beechgrove 68H-1 has been erratic due to mechanical issues.  The typical 12 month decline rate for the Eagle Ford is 73% and the Haynesville is 85%.  The Weyerhaeuser 73H-1 and the BOE #1H are both on artificial lift (rod pump).

Source: SONRIS, MSOGB

2 comments:

  1. Are these decline rates shaping up to mimic the Eagleford Shale or is it still too early to tell?

    ReplyDelete