Sunday, October 14, 2012

Goodrich Denkmann 33-28 H-1 IP Estimate

Goodrich's frac job on the Denkmann 33-28 H-1 should be completed.  Here's some charts to use to make some estimates.  This should be a great location based on the thickness of pay in the area.  With a measured depth of 18278, I calculate a potential completed lateral length of 4948'.

Based on my algorithm that utilizes the parameters from the prior TMS completions, I'm predicting a 30 day initial potential of 857 boepd (bottom slide below).  I hear that the cement job may not have gone well.  If that's the case, then it could have a negative impact on the result.  I understand that the frac job planned for 14 stages with 400,000# of proppant per stage.  This will be an interesting datapoint because the lateral length is not very long, but they are using a lot of proppant per stage.

The charts below provide some comparisons for initial potentials (IP) of the prior completions.

The chart below illustrates that 400,000# of proppant per stage will make this well the 3rd highest so far.  More proppant is better but costs more.

The chart below at this early stage doesn't serve as a great predictor tool because the proppant levels have varied greatly across the wells.  

The chart below indicates that the total proppant should result in an initial potential of 430 boepd.

The chart below illustrates that the high level of proppant per stage should result in a higher than average initial potential.

The log below illustrates the impressive reservoir quality and thickness in this area.  The Denkmann location has an estimated pay thickness of 125'.  Based on 14 stages with 400,000# of average proppant per stage results in an estimated IP30 of 857 boepd.

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