Friday, February 22, 2013

Decline Curves

I believe that the final "check box" for the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale play is the decline curves.  With a handful of 2008 "old era" wells and more "new era" wells producing, some projections can be made with respect to anticipated first year declines.  The current dataset indicates a potential type curve in the range of 78-83% for first year decline. Our EUR estimates range from 400-800 MBOE.  Log analysis from historical deeper wells (775 analyzed) clearly defines pay thicknesses and variations across the play.  The variation in thickness is consistent which assists with predictability.


1 comment:

  1. Very good presentation of data, Kirk. The rapid 1st year decline is no surprise. However, the decline leveling off after that surprised me. These wells could be producing for 20+ years. That's encouraging.