Examining market sentiment always provides some interesting lessons in psychology. In most cases, understanding the "mass psychology" of the herd is the key. The herd always moves in mass, and at times, very quickly.
Many believe that Goodrich Petroleum's stock price (GDP) is a great barometer for the TMS. When comparing operators, Goodrich has the most leverage in the play. The recent Devon acquisition would indicate that they are "all in" with regards to the TMS. Stock prices are indicators of sentiment. When the herd is positive and greedy, prices rise. When feeling negative or fearful, prices decline.
Having now authored this blog since March 2011, I have the ability to track viewing activity. With these data, I can examine historical trends in usage. The chart below integrates the monthly closing price for GDP and page views on this blog. This geologist concludes that there is a nice, tight correlation between these disparate datasets. I don't believe that one controls the other, but they are two separate indicators that align and indicate the trend of TMS market sentiment.
To take it a step further, I've added recent transactions (yellow) on the chart below. These offer additional evidence that there's been a significant shift in sentiment of late. Whether you call the Devon sale "distressed" and the Sanchez deal "too close", the trend is still apparent.
Both Wall Street and U.S. operators have been very slow to migrate to this play. The tide appears to be rapidly turning. Goodrich's target of $5000 per acre might be the next quantum leap.