Thursday, April 10, 2014

Looking Ahead

Here's my view on the play over the next two years:

  • 2014 
    • Derisk the play 
    • Lower costs, improve economics 
    • Several new operators 
    • Valuation escalation 
    • Deeper pilot tests 
  • 2015 
    • Pad drilling 
    • Joint ventures 
    • Deeper drilling 
    • Infrastructure challenges (e.g. roads, oil transportation...)

5 comments:

  1. You have been pretty much been spot on from get go. Second notion on your lastest thoughts. +/-/?'s with going deeper:
    1) -, decline in silty producing layer reservoir quality?
    2) +, slower decline with higher gas lift. Sufficient condensate yield for added cost?

    Interesting play. Hope works out for all involved.

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    Replies
    1. UT TMSer:

      I have reviewed you questions and they are interesting.

      Am I correct in my assumption that you may believe that the updip will be more productive due to the silty producing layer, what I generally have come to term the Jarvie Oreo cookie effect.

      Thanks in advance for sharing any of your insightful thoughts. Am I also on track that you appear to be a studied professional in the industry.

      Thanks John

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    2. UT, I believe that the deeper section will have these benefits:
      -increased pressure (higher flow rates)
      -increased GOR (yes, gas helps lift oil)
      -facies trending toward higher calcite
      -possibly shorter laterals due to the factors above that could make wells as cheap if not cheaper than shallower fairway

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  2. Kirk, At last. things finally appear to be falling into place for the TMS. For the last few years, the TMS just could not get the momentum going, but now the drillers have stepped up for the next move forward. What we landowners could only dream about now may become a reality. This next move up, however, brings on so many questions about what will happen next.
    You mention drilling deeper. Does this mean areas in the southern Felicianas, St Helena, and northern East Baton Rouge and Livingston Parishes have a serious chance of participating in the play even at the deeper depths.
    With drilling presently contained mainly to the area outlined by the dotted line (area of high resistivity) shown in so many of your maps, do you think it will be likely that the TMS play will extend beyond that boundary.
    Please keep up the good work. We all are watching to see how the TMS evolves

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  3. Owl,
    Thank you. My dashed line is my estimation of the current economic boundaries of the play. With higher oil prices, that line could extend farther out. I wish that my crystal ball could predict oil prices. For now, I believe that that 3 million acres to be the area to drill. Keep the faith!

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