Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Initial Potential - Metrics and Predictions

After thirty four completions in the TMS, I believe that six wells serve as the "model wells" based on the fact that they meet these three criteria:
1) Lateral > 5000'
2) Landing zone in the bottom 70' of the TMS
3) Proppant per stage volume between 475,000-600,000

The first two charts below are in chronological order from left to right. The charts illustrate a continuous improvement in initial potentials both on a "per 1000' of lateral basis" and on a "per stage" basis.  That is very encouraging. The third and fourth charts indicate that more proppant is yielding better results, but prior wells have indicated that volumes greater than 700,000 pounds per stage is not advised. The "proppant per stage" presents a very tight correlation with the "IP per 1000 foot". This builds confidence for predicting future results. 

With that said, I've used both "factors" to present some predictions on two upcoming tests.  I'll add more once I get confirmed lateral lengths.  The bottom table presents potential outcomes for both the Horseshoe Hill 11-22H-1 and the Lewis 30-19H-1. I used the "factors" from the Goodrich Blades 33H-1 well.  Utilizing the "per 1000 foot" factor, the Horseshoe Hill calculates to be 1930 boepd and the Lewis to be 1644 boepd.  Utilizing the "per stage" factor, the Horseshoe Hill calculates to be 2032 boepd and the Lewis to be 1651 boepd.  These are very impressive rates and I believe that they are achievable.  These factors are treating all locations as "geologically equal" which they are not.  The Lewis well has very similar log properties as the Blades 33H-1. The Horseshoe Hill is over 30% thicker than the Blades, so who knows what impact that might have.  As more wells are drilled, it will be possible to tightly correlate results with these geological parameters.  Six wells do not provide enough control to make projections with significant confidence.







1 comment:

  1. Kirk, thanks for all of your work! All of us stakeholders really appreciate your efforts at getting the word out on the TMS, even if you're talking your own book (as we all do)! Central LA & MS would get a much needed economic boost if this candle gets lit...

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