Wednesday, October 11, 2017

EOG Eagles Ranch 14H-1 - Initial Potential

An official initial potential ("IP") has been released on SONRIS today for the well.

COMPLETED 9/11/17 AS A OIL WELL IN THE AUSC RB SUB RES;PM F; 1120 BOPD; 1157 MCFD; 1506 CP; 64/64 CK; 2947 BWPD; 1033 GOR; 43 GRVTY;PERFS 16275-20550' (ST: 10)

That means 1,120 barrels of oil, 1157 thousand cubic feet of gas, and 2947 barrels of water over a 24 hour period. The gas/oil ratio is 1033 with 43 API gravity oil.  The well is flowing naturally from 4275' of horizontal perforations.

My phone has been ringing all day. So here are the most frequent questions with my answers:

1) Do you believe these numbers?
The state allows a lot of leeway with regards to how an operator determines the initial potential. So these data are very likely accurate for some point during the flowback. That doesn't mean that it represents the best rate nor does it represent the well after it completed full flowback from the frac job.  Operators tend to release smaller rates when they are still leasing. I hear that EOG is wrapping up their lease acquisition.  Flippers tend to buy based on the rumors.

2) Doesn't 64/64 represent a full open choke?
Yes. This is not the typical choke that would be used during long term production. Many believe that sustained open choke can damage the reservoir.

3) Isn't that a lot of water production?
Yes, but the Austin Chalk always produces a lot of water and some of this could still be flowback water. Speculators start chasing SWD permits!

4) What do you think of the mix of oil versus gas?
This GOR is typical for the area. The GOR in six months will be much more telling

5) Are you happy with this result?
As stated prior, the IP isn't very significant. The production rate, GOR, pressure, and water production in 6-12 months is much more important.

6) Should I keep buying leases next to EOG?
That's your call. What does the geology tell you to do?

7) I heard that lease prices are skyrocketing?
Not exactly. Proximity to the well and the rumored initial rates are driving some interesting transactions.

8) How does this well compare to EOG's well in Texas?
See answer #5

9) 4275' of perforations seems short compared to what I hear in other plays?
EOG in other plays tends to not drill really long laterals. I assume that they'll be conservative on their first set of wells.

10) Where should I lease?
I wish I could tell you, but I would have to.....

Tuesday, October 3, 2017

EOG's Austin Chalk Core Focus Area

EOG's project strategy is starting to become apparent. With ~130,000 acres filed of record in the courthouse and an additional 70,000 possibly leased, the map is starting to tell a story.  They have acquired acreage on trend and east of here but it's not as contiguous.

The map below presents a general outline of EOG's largest contiguous block in yellow.  They have filed some tracts as 3D seismic permits (orange).  The dashed line outlining the 3D permits represents 238 square miles.  Based on the permits filed, I would assume that the 3D will be at least 150 square miles.  The Eagles Ranch 14H-1 falls within the estimated 3D outline.  3D seismic will be very useful due to the very complex geology.

Their geological theories are also becoming apparent. Their lease block consistently terminates on the west side bounded by a prominent salt ridge and three salt domes. Their northern boundary is clearly defined by the Edwards Shelf Edge.  The depth to reach the Austin Chalk increases more rapidly south of the shelf edge.  Formation pressure increases in a linear fashion also.  Their southern boundary is defined by depth of the formation.

Their theme appears to be high pressure, gas/oil mix, faulted, and porous.  My guess is that they will drill a few "pilot" wells in parallel with the 3D acquisition. This would give them some additional data on the formation and be prepared for a full scale development once the 3D is acquired, processed, and interpreted.  Stay tuned for an initial potential on the Eagles Ranch 14H-1.

Sunday, October 1, 2017

EOG Resources Takes Over the Eagles Ranch 14H-1

On SONRIS, EOG is now listed as the operator of the Eagles Ranch 14H-1. No surprises there.

Also note that the well is now a unit well (AUS C RB SUB).

An initial potential has not been posted. Many trucks are reported to be entering and exiting the well site. Oil and water are the cargo. Many speculators are using advanced math to determine an oil flow rate. Stay tuned for an official release.