Wednesday, October 11, 2017

EOG Eagles Ranch 14H-1 - Initial Potential

An official initial potential ("IP") has been released on SONRIS today for the well.

COMPLETED 9/11/17 AS A OIL WELL IN THE AUSC RB SUB RES;PM F; 1120 BOPD; 1157 MCFD; 1506 CP; 64/64 CK; 2947 BWPD; 1033 GOR; 43 GRVTY;PERFS 16275-20550' (ST: 10)

That means 1,120 barrels of oil, 1157 thousand cubic feet of gas, and 2947 barrels of water over a 24 hour period. The gas/oil ratio is 1033 with 43 API gravity oil.  The well is flowing naturally from 4275' of horizontal perforations.

My phone has been ringing all day. So here are the most frequent questions with my answers:

1) Do you believe these numbers?
The state allows a lot of leeway with regards to how an operator determines the initial potential. So these data are very likely accurate for some point during the flowback. That doesn't mean that it represents the best rate nor does it represent the well after it completed full flowback from the frac job.  Operators tend to release smaller rates when they are still leasing. I hear that EOG is wrapping up their lease acquisition.  Flippers tend to buy based on the rumors.

2) Doesn't 64/64 represent a full open choke?
Yes. This is not the typical choke that would be used during long term production. Many believe that sustained open choke can damage the reservoir.

3) Isn't that a lot of water production?
Yes, but the Austin Chalk always produces a lot of water and some of this could still be flowback water. Speculators start chasing SWD permits!

4) What do you think of the mix of oil versus gas?
This GOR is typical for the area. The GOR in six months will be much more telling

5) Are you happy with this result?
As stated prior, the IP isn't very significant. The production rate, GOR, pressure, and water production in 6-12 months is much more important.

6) Should I keep buying leases next to EOG?
That's your call. What does the geology tell you to do?

7) I heard that lease prices are skyrocketing?
Not exactly. Proximity to the well and the rumored initial rates are driving some interesting transactions.

8) How does this well compare to EOG's well in Texas?
See answer #5

9) 4275' of perforations seems short compared to what I hear in other plays?
EOG in other plays tends to not drill really long laterals. I assume that they'll be conservative on their first set of wells.

10) Where should I lease?
I wish I could tell you, but I would have to.....

5 comments:

  1. Any comments/insight on the potential of the basal AC in northern West-East Feliciana? There have been some, albeit limited in number, AC tests in vertical wells that have flowed oil. Wondering if you think this is isolated to small structures or could be pervasive oil saturation trapped either by facies change or structurally?

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    1. CWM,the current Austin Chalk play appears to be targeting low perm, higher porosity rock. Log analysis methods can be used to "high grade" areas. I don't comment on geographically specific areas.

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  2. These are low ball numbers I have heard. Rumors flying...but, they have committed to doing the 3D seismic.

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  3. Was the I.P.FLOWING thru the 7 " casing?

    Also, does the Induced/Propped Fractures add Frac 1/2 length's & Darcy/Millidarcy feet to host formation face/profiles & resultant production regimes?

    Seems that this is what works in the Micro-Porosity of the Chalk here, maybe along with Micro-Fractures too.

    Guess it's going to come down to the in-flow performance ratio during both early-trend clean-up & post-trend producability index.

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