Fast forward to today, and we're on our second Austin Chalk 3.0 completion in Louisiana and the comparisons to Texas have already begun. While the ConocoPhillips McKowen #1 is still flowing back frac water, the landowners are already spreading false rumors of a 2000 barrel of oil per day initial test. Let's hope that they are correct. Prior to the EOG Eagles Ranch 14-1 frac job in Avoyelles Parish, landowners were spreading rumors of a similar result. 2000 barrels must be the lucky guess or fortune tellers have taken over St. Francisville!
Being that the Austin Chalk 3.0 era has been active in Giddings Field (Texas) for a few years, I thought that it would be interesting to review the first 30 completions there starting in 2014. Some interesting observations:
- It took seven wells for the first initial potential to exceed 1000 boepd
- In the first 13 wells, only one has produced over 500 MBOE
- It took 14 wells to exceed 1500 boepd
- It took 21 wells to exceed 2000 boepd
- It took 30 wells to exceed 2500 boepd
- The 30th well had the best initial potential at 2511 boepd (imagine that!)
The first Louisiana AC-3.0 well, the EOG Eagles Ranch 14-1, had an initial potential of 1120 bopd and 1157 mcfgd (1313 boepd). That result exceeds the first 13 wells in Texas. An Eagles Ranch well test reported eleven days later was 2240 bopd and 1837 mcgd (2546 boepd). That test exceeds all of the first 30 Giddings wells.
Initial tests are not significant in the long run. They're most important to stock "pumpers", acreage "flippers", and royalty buyers. Monthly production over time and the decline curve present the key data.
Here are my observations on the first 12 months of production:
- The Eagles Ranch 14-1 produced 143 MBOE.
- It ranks 11th compared to the first 30 wells in Giddings Field.
- This 1st well in Louisiana outperformed the 29th well in Giddings.
- The 1st well in Louisiana outperformed 19 wells of the first 30 at Giddings Field.
Most important to note, the 30th well in Giddings had the best 12 months. So what do we conclude?....the operators get better results through time. It's no surprise that the 30th well outperforms the first 29 wells.
|Source: DrillingInfo, SONRIS|
Each play is different. Even within a given play, the reservoir rock exhibits variability. It really takes 100 wells to truly understand Phase 1 of any new unconventional play. So sit back and enjoy watching the first 30 wells in Louisiana. I'm sure that the Wall Street "suits" will be full of vinegar along the ride!