Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Austin Chalk Update - LA-WEST and TX-EAST

The "big buzz" at NAPE last week in our "little world" was that the Marathon Crowell #2 is producing much better than the initial potential released on SONRIS.  The published test appears to be early in the post-frac flowback.  On SONRIS, a new allowable has been added showing "2300" indicating 2300 bopd.  That's a major improvement from 210 bopd.  Everyone who's been on this blog for years knows that I don't post rumors.  There are many "chat rooms" filled with that.  The facts will always eventually be distributed via the state's regulatory bodies. 

Marathon Crowell #2 (Source: SONRIS)

The rumored rates are consistent with the closest well, the Mcright #11.  In 1997, this well had an initial rate of 1536 bo and 4600 mcf.  Rumored rates are about 50% above this.  The Mcright #11 produced 179 mbo and 0.78 bcf.  Let's hope that the frac impacts a significant amount of matrix porosity.  We'll know a lot more in 90 days about rates, pressure, decline, and water.
Good luck to Marathon! 

I also heard at NAPE that Navidad Resources has had a positive initial test in southern Brookland Field in Tyler County, Texas.  I've not seen an official release for that one.

Let's hope for some significant improvement in commodity prices!

Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Monday, February 3, 2020

Marathon Crowell #2 Result

The Marathon Crowell #2 completion result is about where I forecasted based on the offset production.  

COMPLETED 1/21/2020 AS AN OIL WELL W/ 210 BOPD; 1650 MCFD; 8200 FTP; 6063 SITP; 1300 CP; 18/64" CK; 3343 BWPD; 94% BS&W; 7857; GVTY 52 API; PERF: 16,157'-22,372'

At these production rates, it's impossible to have positive economics at these DHC/CC costs.  At $1.82/mcf gas, natural gas is a tough place to be.  The gas-oil ratio is much higher than the wells on strike.  The API gravity at 52 is quite a bit higher than the adjacent well to the north (47).  The water cut, as forecasted, is very high.  This will be important to observe over the months to come.

The prior post below provides some extensive details on the area and the outlook for this well.

"Having interpreted the 3D seismic on the west side of the field, I can state that the prolific producers there were always proximal to down-to-the-basin faults where fracture clusters are greatest.  To date, all acres haven't been created equal in this field."
"The Marathon Crowell #2 is on strike with poor to decent producers, but has good producers to the northwest.  Note that the offset wells produce primarily natural gas which is currently selling at $2.83/mcf."
"Both wells will likely be in the 4000 range.  Gas will greatly assist producing from the low porosity and permeability, but at the current market prices, oil is a better strategic and economic target."
"This region of the play in Louisiana illustrates much lower resistivities than seen in the prolific trend of Texas and the LA-EAST in Louisiana.  One reason for that could be higher water saturations in the chalk reservoir.  The field historically produced 13.6 barrels of water to every barrel of oil.  That's an extremely high water ratio.  Disposing of water is expensive and impacts the overall economics. One of the risk factors is that a large-proppant frac could increase the water volumes."