Friday, April 17, 2020

Marathon Crowell #2 - Update

I wish I had some encouraging news on the Louisiana Austin Chalk.  A recent test has been released on SONRIS.  On March 24, the well produced 1007 bopd, 7083 mcfgd, and 13127 bwpd.  The water is extremely high which was my concern for this area.  The water/oil ratio is exactly the same that the field has produced historically.  The oil and gas rates are similar to some of the better offset wells.  The question I have at this point is "what impact did the frac have?".  More data in the months ahead will tell us more.  Let's hope for a positive change.  We need it!
STAY SAFE AND HEALTHY!


Source: SONRIS

"We'll know a lot more in 90 days about rates, pressure, decline, and water."
http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/2020/02/austin-chalk-update-la-west-and-tx-east.html

"This region of the play in Louisiana illustrates much lower resistivities than seen in the prolific trend of Texas and the LA-EAST in Louisiana.  One reason for that could be higher water saturations in the chalk reservoir.  The field historically produced 13.6 barrels of water to every barrel of oil.  That's an extremely high water ratio.  Disposing of water is expensive and impacts the overall economics. One of the risk factors is that a large-proppant frac could increase the water volumes."
http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/2019/11/drilling-activity-update.html

"At these production rates, it's impossible to have positive economics at these DHC/CC costs.  At $1.82/mcf gas, natural gas is a tough place to be.  The gas-oil ratio is much higher than the wells on strike.  The API gravity at 52 is quite a bit higher than the adjacent well to the north (47).  The water cut, as forecasted, is very high.  This will be important to observe over the months to come."
http://tuscaloosatrend.blogspot.com/2020/02/marathon-crowell-2-result.html

3 comments:

  1. Seems encouraging to me seeing that much pressure on a well with a water cut like that, which you mentioned is in line with historical unfracked production(builds confidence that the frac is contained in the chalk). Goes back to the western PRESSURED fairway part that you missed the boat on with the COP thing. I doubt highly that Marathon expected to see anything different than a water cut that was inline with the surrounding legacy production, that is why they drill disposal wells. Seeing the water cut in line with legacy Masters creek production(one of the biggest onshore Louisiana fields) excites me. Seems like they have been able to keep the rate flat for ~70+ days now over 1000 BO/D and 6 MMCF/D(with that much pressure the well obviously can do way more than that) and still only on a 39/64 choke. The EOG Eagles Ranch started with a wide open choke and significantly less FTP and started declining from day 1(not surprising with the lower bottom hole pressure and no gas in the system) but will cum 170-200 MBO and still a relatively short lateral. So, with that being said, I would expect this well to do significantly better than that, especially with a longer lateral and a more aggressive frack is performed. Considering the immediate offsets to the Crowell well and looking at the cum to date alongside well head pressure, I would expect the well to substantially outperform its neighbors proving that the frack did work and is working.
    Like you said, still early and having 1 data points makes it hard to make any trends(decline curve analysis), but I don't necessarily see anything discouraging, def more encouraging news here with this new test(in line with legacy production cuts and still significant psi on the well head while still being on a 39 choke).
    I am excited to see what the cumulative oil/gas will be when they eventually run out of chokes, could be a ways off!

    It seems like your post are missing the full scale of what a resource play is. The reservoir engineering and performance analysis is just as important as the geology and landman work!



    Margaret

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    Replies
    1. Margaret,
      The water is part of the reservoir and it greatly impacts performance. Lets hope for the best.
      Kirk

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  2. Yes COP proved that! But they drilled those "water wells" with no drilling problems:)

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